Date: 9/23/2002


What Iraq can do in January 2003

Saddam's new found defiance of any new UN resolution should have the US thinking of what he would do immediately after the US attack on Iraq gets going, or maybe sometime before the D-day (mid-Jan 2003) if Saddam gets wind of it. A smart guess is that he may try a scorched earth policy of flaring off all of Iraq's oil along with that of the whatever part of the middle-east oil wells that he can set his missiles on. This is what scares the Saudis into supporting the US against Saddam, despite the Arab Leagues stand against attacking Iraq. His more predictable moves could be to send his scuds into Israel or maybe Europe or across the Atlantic (if he has the range by now).

The US knows its enemy by his brazeness in the battlefield - remember the Battle of Khafji. In the early evening of 29 January 1991, Iraqi armor and mechanized infantry in eastern and southern Kuwait attacked US Marine Forces, Central Command (MARCENT) and Arab Joint Forces Command-East (JFC-East) units at several points along the Kuwaiti-Saudi Arabian border. The Iraqi offensive lasted a little over four days, continuing until 2 February. Known collectively as the Battle of Khafji, the series of engagements between Iraqi forces and the US-led anti-Iraq coalition represented the first significant ground action of the Gulf War. The highlight of this was the trapping of two U.S. Marine reconnaissance teams by the Iraqis forces.

This brazen Iraqi attack gives us a reading into the enemy's mind. That when cornered the enemy would not wait for an attack on itself to be completed. But will grab the initiative and try to give the attacking force a shock. That this tactic was not successful in 1991 at Khafji is history. But the fact that it happened is a lesson for any future assault on Iraq.

Will the Jihadis strike in the week before Christmas?

On another note, the reason for the assault on Iraq being postponed to January 2003 seems to be to ensure that there is no trouble before the Christmas/New Year holidays. But the efforts to ensure an event-free Yuletide celebration may be belied by a terrorist strike sometime in the week preceding Christmas. Just mark these words. We do not want any such attack to take place, but we are making a guess; so that the authorities can pre-empt such an attack (remember the precautions during Y2K ensured safe celebrations).


.............A lesson for The Govt of India


The Govt of India (GOI) has also a lesson for itself in the US assault on Iraq. While it refuses to support the American initiative on Iraq, it expects the US to back it on Kashmir while tackling the same problem of terrorism. It is quite possible that in the next few months, the GOI will be left with a red face **, if the shrewd Pakistani dictator suddenly makes a volte-face and says that in the interests of fighting global terrorism, he backs the US offensive on Iraq. The slow moving GOI will then look for a big fig leaf to do a similar volte-face. As it is after 9/11 the GOI lost out to the Pakis due to reason of geographical proximity of Pakistan to the then enemy (Taliban), the GOI can now lose out due to the timely upstaging of support to the US by the more agile and shrewd Pakistani dictator. At least the GOI could go by the adage "Silence is Golden" on the issue of supporting the coming US assault on Iraq, if it does not want to commit itself either way. It seems that due to its policy still being hamstrung to the defunct psychology of the non-aligned movement, the GOI is going to lose another opportunity to tune itself into the global war against terror.



Quote: "Government of India will end up red faced over Iraq."

We believe it will more likely end up like the MONKEY'S ROUND RED BOTTOM.